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In 2026, silicon photonics enters its “explosive first year” — where will
In 2026, silicon photonics enters its “explosive first year” — where will
2026 is becoming the most landmark year in the history of silicon photonics (Silicon Photonics). According to the latest LightCounting report, in 2026 sales of optical modules based on silicon optical modulators will for the first time exceed 50% of the overall market — this share was only 10% in 2018 and 33% in 2024. From “one-third” to “more than half,” silicon photonics has crossed the threshold of large-scale commercialization in less than two years.
Why 2026? Where does future competitiveness lie? Several dimensions are worth deeper reflection.
AI computing power: the “first driving force” behind the silicon photonics boom
The exponential growth in demand for AI large model training and inference is reshaping the underlying logic of data center interconnects. Traditional EML optical chip solutions are constrained by indium phosphide (InP) material supply, which is concentrated overseas, and in 2026 a significant supply gap is emerging — a gap that is being filled by silicon photonics solutions. Guosen Securities estimates that in 2026, silicon photonics solutions will account for over 50% of 800G optical modules, and as much as 70%–80% in 1.6T optical modules.
More importantly, in June 2026, NVIDIA announced that its Spectrum-X Ethernet silicon photonics CPO switch has entered full-scale mass production. Compared with traditional pluggable optical module solutions, it improves network energy efficiency by 5x and extends continuous AI runtime by 5x. From a “PowerPoint revolution” to a “rack-level reality,” CPO achieved this transformation in just one year.
