One Number Explains the Siphon
The memory industry has never lacked cycles, but this one is different. Trend Force projects that by the end of 2026, roughly 22% of DRAM wafer input at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will flow into HBM — which yields only about 9% of total memory bits. In other words, one-fifth of the capacity buys back less than one-tenth of the chips.
That is the arithmetic behind the siphon. According to SEMI China's Feng Li, the HBM market is set to grow 58% in 2026 to $54.6 billion, nearly 40% of the DRAM market. The big three have already diverted 70% of new capacity to HBM — and the shortfall still runs 50%–60%. HBM isn't a new product category in memory; it is a black hole inside it.
Who Is Paying for AI
The answer is blunt: everyone who buys a phone or a laptop. In Q2 2026, conventional DRAM contract prices rose 58%–63% quarter-on-quarter and NAND 70%–75%. For consumers it shows up fast — a 1TB SSD went from around RMB 400 to over RMB 1,000, and 32GB DDR5 kits jumped from RMB 800 to RMB 3,300–3,500.
Devices followed. The top-end iPhone 18 Pro Max rose by RMB 3,500, with the 256GB model's BOM cost estimated up 38% year-on-year. China's smartphone shipments fell 4.2% in the first half — a fifth straight quarterly decline. AI's bill was ultimately spread across the price of every device.
My Take
First, import substitution does not equal lower prices. CXMT is now the world's fourth-largest DRAM maker, crossing RMB 4 trillion in market value after its July STAR Market listing. But in a market where demand outstrips supply, no one has an incentive to cut prices — domestic players are chasing the same high-margin AI products. Expecting localization alone to bring memory prices down misreads how this industry works.
Second, memory has shifted from a cyclical commodity to a strategic resource. Pricing used to be a function of inventory and cycles; now it tracks the capex of tech giants — what moves memory prices is not the consumer, but whoever is buying compute servers.
For anyone up and down this supply chain, the keyword for the next two years isn't "waiting for prices to fall" — it's "locking in supply." What HBM takes is not just capacity, but the industry's voice.
